Green Team at the World Business Forum, Day One

The economy is bad, and it's going to stay bad. At least for a while. Then it's going to get better. But not entirely better. Not for a long, long time. And how it gets better is going to have a lot to do with how we deal with 7 billion people on a planet whose resources are rapidly depleting. But I get ahead of myself.

I spent today at Radio City Music Hall with over 5,000 other information-seeking, inspiration craving business people from around the globe at the World Business Forum. Here's a breakdown of the day:

The Crowd
I'd guess about 70% male, 90% white and, judging by a show of hands requested by one of the presenters, about 60% American. We all had big credentials hanging around our necks, so I spent a lot of time badge-gazing. I was expecting to encounter a lot of Fortune 500 company representatives, and saw exactly zero. In fact, I didn't recognize a single company name on a single badge the whole day. (But then, I guess most of the other attendees hadn't heard of Green Team, so we're even.)

Bill George
The Forum's first speaker was actually a stand-in for an ailing Jack Welsh. George spoke about how to lead in a crisis. In fact, we all got a copy of his book, 7 Lessons for Leading In Crisis.

George, a Harvard Business School professor, and former CEO of Medtronic, broke down the seven lessons and said that a crisis could be our defining moments as business leaders. ("Smooth seas do not make a good mariner.") He also passionately encouraged us to be true to our values and maintain our integrity, especially when the going gets tough. "Better to have a bad day than a bad life," said George.

I believe George is sincere about his values and personal convictions. I just wonder how he puts them into practice in his current role as Board Member at both Goldman Sachs and Exxon/Mobil.

Bill Conaty
He spoke about leadership and developing a culture of performance. He spent 40 years at GE, serving as right-hand man to both Jack Welsh and Jeff Immelt, so he knows something about the topic.

Most memorable quote, "Great leaders balance passion and compassion."

Patrick Lencioni
By far the most energetic and engaging speaker of the day, he spoke about the importance of having a company that is both "smart" and "healthy." Since most companies are smart, he focused on healthy. By that, he means a culture with minimal politics and confusion, high morale and productivity and low employee turnover.

Lencioni hit the highlights of his book, The Five Dysfunctions Of A Team, and addressed the role of team leader in avoiding them. His definition of a good leader is one who can combine humility and publicity. Humility in believing that he/she is no better than any other member of the team; publicity in recognizing that even so, his/her words will have a greater influence.

David Rubenstein
When I saw this guy's biography, my blood ran cold. Not only is he one of the founders of the Carlyle Group, the venture capital firm of Bush, Cheney and the Saudi Royal Family (see Fahrenheit 911)—he's also a Duke graduate!

Rubenstein stood in the center of the stage and in a self-effacing and affable manner, rattled off economic figures at a machine gun pace. He may be evil, but he knows what he's talking about. He painted a very clear, but not very encouraging picture of our present economic environment, which he refers to as "The Great Recession." He warned about the risks the US (and thus global) economy faces moving forward, namely the national debt (could hit over $60 trillion), inflation (he predicts will hit 4-5% within two years), unemployment (he predicts 10.5% by June 2010), taxes (he sees rising as inevitable) Social Security (if nothing changes, insolvent by 2040), Medicare (2017), the dollar (its decline will continue) and more.

While this assessment is pretty bleak, Rubenstein also pointed out what he thinks will be areas of opportunity for business and investors: "distressed assets (meaning stocks)," energy (both carbon based and alternative), healthcare, oil, water and the BRIC markets.

He also spoke of the importance of giving back to the community, and cited his own purchase of copies of the Magna Carta, the Declaration of Independence and the Emancipation Proclamation, all of which he has donated to the National Archives for public viewing in perpetuity.

Quotable quote, "Persistence is the most important quality for business success."

Jeffrey Sachs
Wow. Where to begin? For 45 minutes, this man stood at the podium and in a calm, deliberate, unemotional voice proceeded to kick our collective ass.

He spoke of three challenges facing the world today:

1. The Disfunctionality of the American Political System
Sachs cited numerous problematic sectors in the US today: finance, healthcare, infrastructure, and two wars (one of which, he said, was "launched on wholly fictitious premises"). This was where Sachs spent most of his time, and where he unleashed his fiercest criticism.

He spoke of the origins of last year's financial crisis, and how the credit default swaps market grew from $0 to $62 trillion in only seven years, with zero regulation. He spoke of this representing the highest level of irresponsibility in government, and blamed both Democrats and Republicans equally for their collective negligence. While he credited the people who "stopped a depression" last year (mostly Bernanke and Paulson), he also pointed out that "they were the same people who made it possible." Moral of the story, Sachs said, is "don't leave a $62 trillion market unregulated."

At the core of the US systematic woes, Sachs said, is the billions of dollars sloshing in and out of Washington. He believes lobby money and campaign contributions are what are truly shaping US policy today, and it's the American people who are suffering for it.

You could have heard a pin drop in Radio City Music Hall. Sachs was sobering and scathing. He was the only speaker the entire day who called out the people responsible for the economic disaster we are all having to deal with today. Perhaps it's because he doesn't have to deal with the business world directly, and as such faces little fear of retribution or peer vilification.  He provided a sharp contrast to both George and Rubenstein, two men who are on the inside of this situation.

2. The Global Condition
He made the point that the US is seeing its international influence erode, primarily due to the economic growth of China. There was really nothing new here, so he didn't spend a lot of time on the topic. Basically, we had all best get used to the idea that while the US influence is still great, "we no longer call all the shots."

3. Sustainable Development
Sachs defined this as making sure that our economic growth and improvement is in line with the physical restrictions of the planet (which, as of right now, it isn't). This is the most challenging problem we, as a species, face. The global population is currently 6.8 billion. Projecting out the economic growth of China, India and other emerging markets, we're going to need four to five times the natural resources we're currently using to meet the demand of this growth. And keep in mind, we're not meeting the needs we presently have right now.

So what do we do? Sachs said we have to find solutions in the form of alternative (that is, non-carbon) energy, we must make public policy work alongside the free markets, we must have multi-national cooperation and we must put the well-being of people ahead of short-term profits.

I thought Sach's presentation was by far the most riveting and critical one of the day. He was the only speaker who dealt with the serious, global-scale issues mankind (and therefore business) must deal with in the years ahead. He's the only speaker who did more than pay lip service to sustainability, and emphasize its critical importance in moving forward. In short, I was blown away. Though apparently, not everyone shared my point of view.

Later in the day, I overheard some knuckledragger in the lobby deride Sachs as some "liberal UN douchebag." You can lead a horse to water…

Still to come
Kevin Roberts, T. Boone Pickens and George Lucas in the wrapup of Day One and, look out for Day Two's writeup.

- Hank Stewart

Comments

[Shane]

I wish I had been on that room to hear Jeffrey Sachs speak. The three challenges he pointed out were spot on. Unfortunately the politicians are always going to be more concerned about votes rather than serving the American people. America is no longer the top dog and perhaps that is a good thing. Some humility could help us and the world. Sustainable development is critical and I am thankful that someone is talking about it.

[avisualperson]

thanks hank for updating! seems like some fascinating presentations